Capital Expenditures- will gradually decrease over the next several years, thus increasing free cash flow (the real profit). (900 million was spent in 2008 and will decline year over year as follows: 2009- 550 million , 160 million, 90 million, 75 million) barring any acquisitions
Geopolitical Risk - Among the best in the industry - (Laronde, Lapa, Goldex, & Meadowbank located in mining friendly Canada), Kittila (Finland) , Pinos Altos (Mexico). Growth Profile- in GEO (55:1 G:S) - 2008 = 290k , 2009 = 540-575k , 2010 = 1.25-1.35m/oz, 2011 = 1.57 - 1.66m/oz, 2012 = 1.91- 1.98m/oz.
WHERE IS THE GROWTH COMING FROM? The Lapa mine is producing and increasing production by an additional 25% in the first half of 2010. Kittila Mine - Commercial Production expected later this fall Meadowbank - Production set for Q1 2010, producing 350k of gold per annum for 9 years. Pinos Altos- like Kittila is expected to commence production later this fall, producing 175k of gold and over 2.5oz of silver for 12-14 years. But the Flagship(in my opinion) is LaRonde in Quebec located in the gold belt. This mine will have very high quality ore and far more reserves than has been declared thus far. It will produce 325k per annum, but wait it gets better. the LaRonde extension extends the life of the mine to 2024-2025 which has an even higher grade ore. This is expected to commence in 2011.
This story is so amazing due to the fact the produced a meager 280k ounces of gold in 2008 and is aiming for 2m 4 to 5 years later!
Agnico Valuation: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rob7DJ_CziVGF623h_na5ZQ