Nov 15, 2010

Don't Listen To GDP Numbers, Look at the Fundamentals.

Don't be fooled when you hear government officials saying, "This policy will create X amount of jobs". That is the same as saying tax receipts will go towards paying individuals to dig a ditch, only to have others fill it back up. JOBS DONT MATTER UNLESS THEY ARE PRODUCTIVE. This being the case there is no way GDP has rebounded from levels seen as far back as 8-10 years ago. Yes, the numbers may be higher but look at the composition: 70% consumption, defense spending, other government spending etc.

Given the lack of technological innovation to any meaningful degree over the past ten years, coupled with are mounting trade deficit, real economic growth is impossible. I concede we have seen some innovations i.e the ipod, ipad etc and some more in the electronics world over the last decade, but these are minute relative to the structurally weak economy that is the United States. We have lost our manufacturing base and have become a service sector economy, which continues to destroy capital formation via our reckless monetary policy. Low interest rates distort people real time preference, seen through all the mal-investment.

In other words, without another technological revolution as big as what we witnessed during the 90's, artificially low interest rates, lack of savings and thus capital formation, we are destined to see our real economy contract via loss of more and more jobs. Without transforming into a export based economy, this is the only way to real economic growth. We truly are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

1 comment:

  1. Man u hit the nail...leverage has to be matched by increased efficiency through technology...the economic situation is horrible but on the other hand i think there is high possibility of significant changes in technology in the next 10 years - skim Ray kurzweil singularity if u get a chance. He is excellent at predicting technological progress